ثلاثة خطوط وقف إطلاق نار محتملة في الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية

فكرة تجريدية: 

الولايات المتحدة وحدها هي القوة الطاغية لإقامة مكان وزمان وقف إطلاق النار ، على الرغم من أن روسيا وأوروبا الغربية والصين هي أيضًا عوامل أساسية مهمة. توجد ثلاثة خطوط لوقف إطلاق النار نظريًا في الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية. الخط 1 هو ترسيم جغرافي رسمه نهر دنيبر بالإضافة إلى ساحل البحر الأسود. يحد الخط 2 الحدود الإدارية الكاملة لمنطقتي لوهانسك ودونيتسك. السطر 3 هو أي قوس في المنطقة الواسعة الواقعة بين الخطين 1 و 2. إذا سعت الولايات المتحدة إلى نتيجة محدودة فقط في هذه الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية ولم تشمل دولًا أخرى بشكل مباشر ، فسيكون لهذا البلد مبادرة كافية لرسم خط ثابت لوقف إطلاق النار في مكان ما في L1 و L2 وحتى L3. بالنسبة لروسيا ، بما يتوافق مع حالة عدم اليقين التي يسببها الخط L3 ، فإن وقف إطلاق النار على الخطين L1 و L2 سيكون له احتمالية أوضح. ومع ذلك ، بمجرد أن تنتهج الولايات المتحدة حربًا موسعة أو تحاول إشراك المزيد من الدول المحلية داخلها مؤخرًا أو في المستقبل ، فإنها ستحدث آثارًا تخريبية على العالم. يجب مناقشة هذا الاحتمال بجدية وبشكل كامل.

الكلمة الرئيسية:

الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية ، خط وقف إطلاق النار ، 2026 ، صوملة أوكرانيا ، يوغوسلافيا أوكرانيا.

المفاهيم التي تم إصدارها لأول مرة في هذه المقالة

خط وقف إطلاق النار L1

This is a ceasefire line along the Dnieper River and the Black Sea Coastline. Also it is renamed as Confined Western Wall by author Ye QiQuan in his later article. This cease line my be a good solution for Ukraine under current condition, because it can avoid the worse outcomes called as Somalization or the Yugoslavization of Ukraine. If multiple local states send their troops into Ukraine,  it will push Ukraine into big trouble.

L2 ceasefire line

( renamed as Confined Eastern Wall in later article)

A ceasefire line along the complete administrative border of Donetsk and Luhansk. It also is the bottom line for Russia. The US bloc can not and will not pass over this line (at least by 2026).
It is renamed as Confined Eastern Wall by author Ye QiQuan.

If Ukraine with its boss perseveres with this line as its final dream, Ukraine will be at huge risk. 

1. The national economic foundation will be completely destroyed following a series of cruel battles.
2. Ukraine will lose its governing over its own lands once its allies build multiple regimes independent from the Ukrainaine central government. When these local countries need to cash their investment, Somalization of Ukraine happens. The worst is repeating the script of Yugoslave’s disintegration. 
3. Once Russia has an advantage in Central Ukraine, it may build about seven autonomous local governments to relieve long-term pressure from the USA. That conducts the Yoguslavization of Ukraine. 

L3 ceasefire lines

( can be named as Middle ceasefire lines)

A group of ceasefire lines lies between L1 line and L2 line. The ceasefire line in this zone will not be stable because none of any parts has been seriously defeated. The next conflict can be recalled easily.

Somalization of Ukraine.

Ukrainian allies can conduct the Somalization of Ukraine after they send their troops into Ukraine and seek their own national interests.

Yoguslavization of Ukraine

To relieve long-term pressure from the USA, building some local relimes dependent on Russia will benefit Russia, including establishing about seven autonomous local governments. That conducts the Yoguslavization of Ukraine. Ukrainian allies also can contribute the outcome of Yoguslavization of Ukraine.

Europe is divided to judge the Russia-Ukraine War.

A quick ceasefire benefits  Europe from falling into a long-term chaos. However, some countries hope the war prolonged for their own national interests, especially those local countries around Ukraine.

L2 line may be supported by China

The L2 line may be one such line,  to protect China and Russia and to prevent NATO’s eastward expansion.

Related Questions

When we focus on the Russia-Ukraine War, there are several points worth paying attention to

1. The potential ceasefire lines and their basis. 
2. when one ceasefire will be chosen by the main players?
3. The main reasons for big players to cease. 
4. The factors to limit the war or enlarge it. 
5. Consequences following an enlarged War.

===Main Content===

Terms of three ceasefire lines

 In the Russia-Ukraine War, the protagonists seem to be Ukraine and Russia. The biggest operators truly are the United States and Russia. They are the big bosses who can only decide where and when the ceasefire line will be located. Of course, China and Europe will also play an important role related to this program.

There are theoretically three ceasefire lines in the Russia-Ukraine War. Line 1 is a geographical demarcation drawn by the Dnieper River plus the Black Sea Coastline. Line 2 is bounded by the complete administrative boundary of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. Line 3 is any arc in the wide area between lines 1 and 2. It may be fixed for a limited period, or it may keep moving back and forth as the fight and ceasefire sway.

 Line1: Characters, Condition, and Prospect

Characters of L1 line

Line1, is a geographical trench divided by the Dnieper River, may plus the Black Sea Coastline. If the parties agree to choose this line to cease, this line will be a relatively stable for quite a long time. The reasons are as follows:

1. Military function line. This line has important military properties, and it can effectively block or delay any cross-river action. This means that a ceasefire line there has the practical function to reduce the frequency and intensity of collisions.
2. Cultural boundaries. There are big differences in culture, psychology, and ethnic structure on different sides of the river. This is a boundary that Russia and Ukraine can accept psychologically, even though the Kyiv region does not have this feature as a special case. Or both sides can agree to divide people with different national inclinations into different banks of this river. It may also have some historical memory of Eastern and Western Ukraine.
3. Geographical boundaries. This is an excellent geopolitical divide to stop Russian power from moving towards Western Europe.
4. A bottom line for US bloc to stop Russia. This line along the banks of the Dnieper River (may plus the coastal territory of the Black Sea), may be the biggest gain for Russia from this war. It will be impossible for Russia alone to pass over this bottom line without the agreement of the US bloc. It is very clear that the US bloc does not like to allow Russia to cross the west bank of the Dnieper and occupy some areas in West Ukraine. 

When is the timeline of Line1?

A ceasefire along the L1 line emerges when the US Bloc has a close political will with Russia. Here are some of the factors to call them to sit together and talk about Line1 as a ceasefire line.

 1. After Russia successfully set up its front at the east bank of the Dnieper River.

After Russia successfully set up its front at the east bank of the Dnieper River, and keep it after multiple counterattacks from the Western group.Within this situation, the United States may hesitate to pay enormous costs with harsher consequences. So the USA abandone  a plans to squeeze Russia eastward.

2. When some local countries have a strong will to intervern this war.

When some local countries, such as Poland, Romania, Hungary, Turkey, Lithuania, etc., have a strong will to send their troops into Ukraine, it would be an urgent time to set up a ceasefire line to prevent a prolonged and enlarged. Once these local countries intervene in this war, it will inevitably rapidly increase the cost for the USA to manage the war. One big risk is to lose the effective buffer zone between the United States blocs and the Russian group. The main goal driving these local countries to send their troops into this war should not be something in eastern Ukraine, but the big lure in western Ukraine. Once these local countries eventually occupy some areas over Ukraine, western Ukraine will finally lose its function as a big buffer to separate Russia from “Europe”.

3. When political pressure emerges from the way against China

Once a big political pressure emerges from the front line against China, the US has to immediately divert its main attention to China. Even if traditional Chinese should not initiate a conflict, the second half of 2026 is a really high-risk point. The West should follow up on Chinese public media from the end of 2025.

 The prospects and political basis for Line1

Rationally, Line1 is an easier solution in the three ceasefire options, because it is easy for both the United States and Russia to get compromised.

1,  For Russia, of course, the L1 line should be the best outcome Russia can reach recently. Russia fully achieves its main goals under this ceasefire line, including demilitarization of Ukraine’s Army, removing anti-Russian forces, and acquiring strategic buffer areas to protect its national interests. Russia will be happy to maintain the stability of this ceasefire line. Based on this big benefit, Russia will be more tolerant of low-level provocations by its hostile neighbors.

2,  If the United States treats China as its No. one enemy, it is reasonable and realistic for the United States to set up a ceasefire on the L1 line. The United States has won its major political goals from this war so far, including weakening Europe, weakening Russia, and separating Russia from Europe through a solid Ukrainian Trench. America can avoid investing huge costs into this war if it sets up a ceasefire quickly.

3, Ukraine is reluctant to accept a ceasefire along the L1 line until its military and economic power are exhausted. No Ukrainian politician dares to accept this reality to set up a ceasefire along the L1 line, because it is tantamount to suicide until Ukraine has completely lost the ability to fight back against Russia. It is impossible for Ukraine to drive Russia out of its lands alone. Setting up a  ceasefire on the L1 line may be scary-looking but is actually a better option for Ukraine. This solution can avoid the worse outcome of Somalization or the Yugoslavization of Ukraine after multiple local states’ interventions during this war.

4, Europe is divided to judge the Russia-Ukraine War. It is in the interest of the whole of Europe to set up a ceasefire anywhere as soon as possible. A quick ceasefire benefits  Europe from falling into a long-term chaos. However, some countries hope the war will be prolonged for their national interests, especially those local countries around Ukraine. In fact, a divided and weakened Europe is in the way for America’s long-term interests as well. It can improve America’s influence over whole of Europe and reduce the cost to manage the world.

 Line2: Realistic characters, Opportunity, and Prospect

Line2, the Second Ceasefire Line, delimited by the complete administrative boundaries of the Luhansk and Donetsk regions. It is another relatively stable ceasefire line for a number of reasons.

The realistic basis of this ceasefire line

1, This line may have been one of the options initially set by Russia. If Ukraine falls to Russia in an all-around way, this line will be a realistic option. That option quickly disappeared, as Russia’s first phase of military operations was unsuccessful.  

2, Line2 already has a clear historical footprint in which Ukraine has administratively lost its control over this region for more than eight years. Russia has declared that these two regions have achieved a kind of status like Croatia, at least like the status of Kosovo. At the same time, Russia has enough power to keep its governance over these two regions. The USA can not or will not pass over this line.

3, This line will be the top achievement the US bloc can reach in this upheaval. It will be impossible to compress Russia eastward across the L2 line.

4, Politically, this is the bottom line that both the Russian elite and the general public can accept after a series of losses in battle.

5, Line2 will also be the bottom line that China will support. Relations between China and Russia have always been complex and delicate. In the past 40 years, they’d rather be polite and unfamiliar neighbors vigilantly and cooperatively. They were defending and cooperating with each other. However, China will definitely support Russia on a certain bottom line to avoid Russia suffering from a complete political and military defeat. The L2 line is one such line,  to protect China and Russia and to prevent NATO’s eastward expansion.

Line2, Timing, and contributing factors

Although this line is relatively stable, it will be very hard to reach. It must work with the following timing factors.

1. Russia suffers from a series of defeats on the battlefield, and a series of headaches in the economy following in a prolonged war. Public opinion in Russia may not continue to support a protracted war.
2. There is also a very low probability that some Ukrainian military forces get rid of the control of the United States. They successfully seize the initiative in the war, and then reach a comprehensive political compromise with Russia, and then put the ceasefire line back on this line.
3. China will come forward to issue an official statement, indicating that this line is an important factor for European stability once Russia faces a huge pressure at this line.

The prospect of Line2

1, To accept this line means that the Russian elite truly accepts an oppressive failure after their repeated struggles. It also marks that Russia has failed in both military and economic fields. Setting up a defense wall at this line will prevent a possible political rout. But actually the probability to set a ceasefire along the L2 line is very low, because the USA will pay too much to reach it.

2, To reach this line, Ukraine must rely on two elementor pillars. One is the economic and equipment support from the United States and the European Union. Another is armed troops from its local allies. Once this reality is realized at the L2 line, these countries which invested their troops will definitely cash their costs on Ukrainian territory. The ways to monetize their cost include building multiple small local regimes dependent on the Ukrainian central government. This will result in the Somaliization of Ukraine. The worst outcome is the possibility of repeating the script of Yugoslavia’s disintegration.

3, A very dramatic scenario will come up on the L2 line script. Russia’s small allies, including Belarus and these Central Asian countries, will oppose the reality to dismember Ukraine, but Ukraine’s local allies will be happy to dismember Ukraine in practice. If this war eventually involves China, the chances of Somalization or Yugoslavization of Ukraine will be very high.

4, Ukraine would be a source of long-term instability in Europe if the Somaliization or Yugoslavization of Ukraine happens.

Line3, the third group of the ceasefire line.

Feature

Actually, there is a group of ceasefire lines to cease temporarily in a big area between Line1 and Line2. A ceasefire line can come out easily under a low degree of compromise in such this area. It also can be broken by a low level of political need from any side in the war. Even it can be set up by a single part only. Either one side or both sides in this war can easily build a ceasefire line in this wide zone and then break it down easily. This ceasing and firing game can repeat over over again in this area.

Establishing a ceasefire line in this area is the easiest of the three ceasefire line options. That does not require that one side be completely defeated. In other words, either side of the ceasefire line reserves enough capacity to initiate the next confrontation. Provoking the next battle does not require particularly large political and economic costs. 

Different values for USA and Russia

A ceasefire line in the L3 zone has completely different political values for America and Russia. For America, the L3 line is a perfect handle to manage war on period and size. At the same time, a ceasefire in this area is a deep trap that drags Russia into the uncertainty of war.

The United States actually is the most powerful force on the battlefield of all parties. The USA not only has the power to decide when and where to set up a ceasefire line but also has the magic power to turn an unfavorable situation into advantage. If the United States wants to establish a ceasefire line in the L3 line region, it means that the United States has plans to maintain its super influence in this region for a long time. Every other country, including Russia, has to dance to America’s pace. 

America also has another big advantage in which the USA has a chance to exert its influence in Belarus and Kazakhstan, to make Russia bleed slowly and chronically.

Building about seven autonomous local governments

Russia is another superpower in the war. It has enough power to keep its right and influence in the east Ukraine and central Ukraine. If a ceasefire line is finally set up at the L3 region, Russia has to make a series of complex plans to relieve long-term pressure from the USA, including establishing about seven autonomous local governments.

European countries are incapable of proper response

Some European countries, may Poland, Romania, Hungary, Turkey, and baltic states, will be driven by their youth hormones to jump into a prolonged war, but in the end, they will get little thing but the experience of failure. Some European countries fear long-term chaos in the region, but sadly, they are also incapable on proper response.

Opportunity of L3 line (cease in Central Ukraine)

If the United States and Russia, the main powers in Russia-Ukraine War, have the same expectation to control their war cost, setting a ceasefire line on the L3 line zone might be the first option for both of them. If Russia fails to establish a stable denial frontier on the L1 line by this winter, the chances in the L3 line zone will increase sharply. When Russia is facing strong military pressure, as well as the United States is facing strong economic pressure, there will be a relatively high probability of a ceasefire in L3 zone. 

 The prospect of Line3

Any ceasefire line in the L3 line area is at risk, not only for Russia but for other players who are in or will be in the war.

For Russia (at risk)

The United States has a strong comprehensive force over the L3 line zone between Dnieper River and Dobass. Russia will  face a huge risk of being drawn into a prolonged war if a ceasefire is set up there. For a target to relieve long-term political and military pressure from the US bloc, a strong denial front is necessary for Russia, but it will cost Russia a lot. The establishment of multiple local regimes dependent on Russia is also an important part. At the same time, Russia must accelerate its entry into the Chinese-dominated economic system. And Russia wants to lure Europe to help stabilize ceasefire lines in this region. If the situation continues to deteriorate, Russia can also participate in or directly cause chaos in Europe.

For local countries (in benefits)

For multiple local countries, putting a ceasefire line on the L3 zone may be a good opportunity to intervene in this extended war. This opportunity may increase their voice in Europe and their influence on the regional situation. It may also enhance the self-confidence and sense of honor of their citizens. But under the oppression of several major powers such as the United States, China, Russia, France, Germany, Iran, and Turkey, how much room do they have to perform? Once Europe is oppressed by the three major powers of Russia, Iran, and Turkey, how will these countries driven by youth hormones protect themselves from great danger?

For core countries of Europe (at risk)

For core countries of Europe, stabilizing the situation in Europe as soon as possible is their priority, no matter where the ceasefire line is. In particular, these core countries should not involve themselves in a dispute with China caused by a prolonged war. 

For Ukraine (an inevitalbe destiny to be divided)

For Ukraine, it is a fact that Ukraine does not have enough power on its own to confront Russia on the L3 line. Ukraine must rely on economic and equipment support from the United States and Europe, as well as troop support from the local countries. These local countries sending their troops into the battlefield must be for their own national interests, not for Ukraine. They will cash out their investment in some way. An easy way is to establish some local regimes independent from the Ukrainian central government. This is equivalent to the Somalization of Ukraine. The worst result is reading the script of Yugoslavia’s split.

For USA (in advantage with risk)

For America, establishing a ceasefire line on the L3 zone would benefit a lot. This country has enough power to dominate the situation in this region, including ceasefires or restarts, to control the scale and length of the war. America also can continue to put pressure on Russia whenever needed. It is even possible to expand NATO into Asia to compress China. But once Poland, Romania, Hungary, Iran, Turkey, and other local countries are involved in this war, it will be unclear to judge if the United States still has enough power to control the war process.  

summary

In short, there are theoretically three ceasefire lines. The L1 line is along the Dnieper River and the Black Sea coastline. The L2 line is the complete administrative border along Donetsk and Luhansk. L3 is any ceasefire line set in the vast area between the L1 and L2 lines.

The L2 line is a relatively stable ceasefire line, but it is extremely difficult to reach and is basically hopeless until 2026.

The L3 line currently seems to be the easiest to achieve. The major nations in the war may be thinking about it. But it contains huge risks for all parties involved.

Although L1 is not easy to obtain, it seems relatively stable for all parties. If the main players involved in the war do not want to continue to invest huge costs, a ceasefire on the L1 line should be an ideal solution.

References:

1. Ye, QiQuan. Where will be ceasefire line chosen in Ukrainian War. The submitted recept from Opinion Channel @guardian.co.uk on April 26, 2022. 
2. Ye, QiQuan.  Three Possible Ceasefire Lines of Russia-Ukraine War: Reality Basis, Opportunity, and Prospects. The submitted recept from International Security on May 23, 2022.
3. Ye, QiQuan.  Three Possible Ceasefire Lines of Russia-Ukraine War: Reality Basis, Opportunity, and Prospects. [Blogger Version of this Article]  https://destinedfating.blogspot.com/2022/09/three-possible-ceasefire-lines-of.html
4. Ye, QiQuan. Whose War? Players winning or losing in the Russia-Ukraine War.  https://destinedfating.blogspot.com/2022/09/whose-war-players-winning-or-losing-in.html