| First-released Date: | June 18, 2022 | Updated Dates: | Sep. 15, 2022 | Feb. 11, 2023 |
Abstract:
Two certain losers, Ukraine and the EU, are already there from the Russia-Ukraine War. As a whole, Europe lost its position and outlook to be one of the top poles of the world. Ukraine lost its power over its territory more than it had done before the war started. Worse yet, it might lose its construction frame as a whole country. One certain winner there is Russia because it will strongly stand at its bottom line. The line is built by a complete border of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. It makes Russia practically invincible. The American group can not and will not pass over this Eastern Confined Wall. The war brought and will bring more pressure in Russian geopolitics and economy, but all losses can be compensated from Ukraine, even far more. The USA has been the biggest winner recently. It already reached at least three realistic rewards, including weakening Europe, weakening Russia, and building a solid Ukraine Trench to prevent Europe and Russia from approaching each other in at least the coming 50 years. This country also is the biggest power to decide where and when the final ceasefire line is established. China has also gained a lot.However, if the USA has a plan to drag China into a large-scale war, not only both of them will be at huge risk, but also numerous other nations will be in difficulty.
2026 will be a critical point for a lot of other countries because of China’s Cross-Strait Unification Action.
Keywords:
Russia-Ukraine War, Ukraine Trench, Taiwan, USA, Sino-US conflict, Cross-Strait Unification Action, G2 Age, colonized Europe, Fading Europe, China’s nuclear force.
First-released Concepts in this article
This article is a prediction about the Russia-Ukraine War with 10K words long. The idea was shaped in April and first submitted on June 18, 2022. It has been repeatedly rejected by a series of famous political science journals in the past year. But its major prophecies either was confirmed true or is approaching confirmed. The main predictions and judgments from this article are as follows.
1. Russia is virtually invincible, at least by 2026.
The war puts political and economic pressure on Russia, but all losses can be compensated from Ukraine, and far more. The USA bloc can not pass over the eastern confined wall built by the complete administrative border of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Ukraine is an absolute loser, unless a successful military coup followed by a total surrender to Russia.
2. A war to weaken Europe: the Russia-Ukraine War actually is.
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The war named Russia-Ukraine War is actually a war to divide and weaken Europe. A main target and a big outcome is to build a solid Ukraine Trench to separate Russia from Europe and prevent them approaching each other in at least the next 50 years. Europe loses a lot economically and geopolitically.
3. Ukraine Trench: The Russia-Ukraine War works to build.
A key target and a major outcome of Russia-Ukraine War is to build a solid divide, Ukraine Trench. This ditch will separate Russia from “Europe” politically, economically and geopolitically in the coming at least 50 years. Ukraine contributes itself to service this goal.
4. The colonized Europe.
It is impossible for European politicians to be completely ignorant of this fact, but no one can effectively contest it. Being passively forced into a war to weaken itself, Europe was in every way colonial.
5. Europe loses its position and outlook as a top political pole / pillar.
Europe should be the biggest loser from the Russia-Ukraine War. Not only economic losses and geopolitical damage, China will definitely give up its 30-year-old policy that supports Europe as a world pole to balance the USA ‘s influence. It is very clear that the colonized Europe will be a big burden for China when an Sino-USA conflict happens. Worsely triggering, creating , pushing, participating, and enlarging chaos in Europe will be a big tool for China to responde a violent conflict. Even this option is in the toolbox already. And other countries had thrown away their expectation or prospect to wait for Europe as a main pillar in the world.
6. Somalization of Ukraine.
If Ukraine (actually the U.S. bloc) can get a certain advantage militarily in central Ukraine, it must be by two pillars. One is the economy and weapon support from the USA and Western Europe. Another is local countries sending their troops into Ukraine. These armed troops are the basis for the Somalization of Ukraine. That means even if Ukraine “wins” on paper, it still loses absolutely.
7. Yugoslavization of Ukraine.
Once Russia gains an advantage, it will definitely establish multiple local regimes independent of Ukraine, to resist long-term war and economic pressure. This is the main reason for the Yugoslavization of Ukraine.
In another article submitted in May 2022, Ye Qiquan even bluntly stated that Russia may establish as many as seven local regimes in Ukraine as a means to respond to long-term military pressure from the USA.
8. The local countries will definitely send troops into Ukraine.
The local countries are the few European countries that could benefit from the Russia-Ukraine War. This is also the basis for the division of Europe. These armed troops from local countries will build a solid foundation for Ukraine’s complete failure.
9. The war is limited, at least by 2026.
This war will be limited to the Eastern Wall ( the complete administrative border of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts) to the Western Wall ( the bank of Dnieper River plus a part of the Black Sea coast). Russia can not pass over the Western Front, and the USA Group can not break down the Eastern line. The ceasefire also will be taking place in this zone.
10. The US is currently the biggest winner.
But if the USA wants to draw China into a large- scale war, both will risk failure.
11. China is another winner.
Russia is getting closer to China. China also will be easier to extend its influence into the five Central Asian countries. Even China also faces political and military risks.
12. China will launch Cross-Strait Unification Action in 2026.
This action has far-reaching implications. It may affect the solution of the Russia-Ukraine war, the stability of Western Europe, and the world situation.
13.China’s nuclear force
There will be a five stages playbook for a potential
US-China conflict. China will definitely “leak” its dependable nuclear forces (generally about 3,000 warheads) by the end of 2025, so as to completely eliminate the nuclear option from the Sino-US conflict playbook.
Note:
This article was completed and first submitted on June 18, 2022. It has been repeatedly rejected by a series of top political science journals in the past year. These journals are located in the USA, UK, Spain, Netherlands, Denmark, Norway, Turkey, and even Russia. Several articles, including this one, have been widely circulated in the political science field indeed. Then it will be reasonable to identify their first-released-date as the day they was submitted to the political science journals at their first time. That matters when some creators declare their First-released Concept right.
2 thoughts on “حرب من؟ اللاعبون يربحون أو يخسرون في الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية”
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