حرب من؟ اللاعبون يربحون أو يخسرون في الحرب الروسية الأوكرانية

=====Main Content=====

Profile of the main players

Who are the leaders, and who are the team partners in this Russia-Ukraine War? Who will profit? And Who will lose their interest in this war?

When we focus on this war located on Ukrainian territory, the above questions must be at the top of the frequent questions list. Even when the war was in its early stages of development, two losers had already been identified: the European Union (EU) and Ukraine. From what we have seen, there is only one clear winner so far, Russia. America should be the biggest winner as long as China does not enter the picture. If China gets involved it will spell disaster for both America and China and will result in unknown consequences.

The European Union: an absolutely loser.

By being in formal and comprehensive enmity with Russia, the EU has killed many of its interests such as Nord Stream 2[1], the China-EU Investment Agreement, and the Euro settlement of the Sino-Russian oil and gas trade[2]. However, the biggest loss from the EU is its position as one of the top political players, and other countries no longer expect this outlook and support it since the war started in February 2022. This year will definitely be defined as the first year of Fading Europe in the coming future.

Ukraine: The player actively seeks to lose.

The decline of Ukraine did not start from this war, but with the division of the Soviet Union. Ukraine has been constricted by the new world order established by the USA. Under this new policy, gathering wealth through military means from weaker countries is no longer possible. The alternative is to leverage economic and financial tools to grow. Ukraine has still not learned the necessary skills to enrich the country and let the people prosper. Participating into war games to trade EU’s butter is an easy trial way for Ukraine to choose. But on the other hand,  the way is very  very difficult for them due to their lack of power to demonstrate in this war. Ukraine actually is a no-power player to start, continue, or stop this conflict with Russia.

Russia：no risk of losing with a solid bottom line.

As long as keeping the intact administrative borders of Donetsk and Luhansk (L2 line or Eastern Wall) as the western bottom front line, Russia can stably stand on the winning side to protect its national interests. It will not be possible to push Russia eastwards beyond this bottom line, because it is not only built by Russia but also supported by China. Russia also has a good chance to set up either temporary or permanent ceasefire line in the vast area of Central Ukraine, between the east Dnieper bank and the administrative border of Donbas. Even in the best-case scenario, Russia can establish a stable ceasefire line along the eastern banks of the Dnieper and the Black Sea coast. The USA can suppress Russia’s prosperity through a prolonged war process, but can not destroy Russia’s economic framework when it is made from various raw material sources.

The USA: Wins most with big risk to enlarge the war.

America has already gained a lot from this war so far. These achievements include at least the following:

1.  weakening Europe to prevent Europe’s centrifugal tendencies;
2. weakening Russia;
3. successfully creating a Ukrainian Trench to prevent Russia and Europe from approaching each other.
4. rehearsing a script of a full-sized economic war applied to China in the future.

America, the leading country in the world, can keep its advantage for the long term, until putting itself in a huge risk by initiating a war against China.

China: Quiet winner with the risk at an unwilling war.

China has also won a lot so far even though this country still stands out on the battlefield of the Russia-Ukraine War. Russia has changed its attitude towards the Belt and Road Initiative. In all political, military, and economic directions, Russia has moved closer to China than it had ever. It can be expected that Russia will get closer and closer in the way it connects to China. The Ukrainian Trench also help China block NATO power away from the land directions to China.

Whose War?

The war for Ukraine?

A war controlled by foreign powers

It seems only two countries involved in the Russia-Ukraine War so far, and Ukraine is one of them. Some Ukrainian politicians have claimed that they are fighting for you, for the West, and for the world. It is technically true that Ukraine is working hard in a war initiated and orientated by someone else. Ukrainians have never only fought for themselves. Since the denuclearization of Ukraine started in the 90s of the last century, foreign factors have been heavily involved in Ukraine’s political framework. The chaos that started in 2013 was not solely due to domestic factors. In the past eight years, the process to reclaim the power over the two divided states has been managed by not only the Ukrainian government but also by foreign powers. These foreign powers manipulated the aggressive military expansion in Ukraine. Then it eventually called out Russia’s response with a special military operation. The ongoing battle is also supported by external sources, especially in information warfare to reach battlefield transparency. So technically we can think that Ukraine is in a war controlled and orientated by foreign powers.

An attempt to find out Ukrainian economical path

On the other hand, this war is a fatalistic attempt in the course of Ukrainian history. It also is a step in a long period to find a way to save this country. Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Ukraine has started a long fight to find a good way to save its people and improve its economy.

The disintegration of the Soviet Union can be regarded as a kind of self-help action at the economic level. When a huge organization can not afford the cost to cover all needs from all of its members, a major number of marginal members were expelled to save core members. All scattered brothers lost economic protection from their father Red Empire.Under these circumstances, it is unrealistic for Ukraine to get substantial economic support from Russia when this big brother is not rich enough. Turning away from Russia and then embracing the West must be an inescapable attempt in Ukraine’s fate.

Embracing the West can be deemed a trial process to improve (or rescue) the Ukrainian economy. Everyone knows that getting help from your neighbor will not be easier than from your blood cousin. However, Ukraine has to try once, because these neighbors look much richer and more generous than its poor blood big brother. Turning the back off Russia is not only a hard choice for Ukraine, but also a painful reality for Russia. This choice eventually caused a big argument and a miserable civil war. It also built a solid foundation for this hot war. Trading political pain (hostility to Russia) for economic aid from the EU may be something that Ukraine has to try for its development path. Perhaps it is a piece of inevitable catastrophe in the fate of this country.

Options for Ukraine

There were a variety of different viewpoints to guide Ukraine’s response to Russia, including to insist on fighting until victorious, to concede land and conduct peace talks, to surrender to Russia and thus having the opportunity to preserve its entire territory, and etc. I agree with all of the above suggestions to some degree. But firstly, we have to evaluate whether Ukraine can make its independent decisions with its own mind. If Ukraine retains some right to make these decisions, what would benefit Ukraine most?

All-round fall to Russia,

Helping Russia to stop expansion of NATO. It seems the best military strategy, but not good enough for the economy. This choice actually was completely abandoned eight years ago. And the external control power will not allow Ukraine to take this war. No probability is there, unless a military coup succeeds in getting rid of foreign control and followed by a comprehensive agreement with Russia.

To Ceasefire along the bank of Dnieper River

To Ceasefire along the bank of Dnieper River (named as L1 line). It looks like a very bad ending for Ukraine, but it might be a good plan or the best one that Ukraine can reach under the current circumstances. With this plan, Ukraine can still keep a shell construct and an inner core as an independent country. But no Ukrainian politicians will dare to admit the reality of this failure until they have no choice. In addition, this plan must also be approved by the USA.

To compress Russia back to the administrative border of Donetsk and Luhansk

To compress Russia back to the administrative border of Donetsk and Luhansk (named as L2 line). After a series of victories eastwards, compressing Russia back to the L2 line will be a great dream all Ukrainians fantasize about. This result seems like the best goal for Ukraine, but the end will be fraught with huge risks listed as follows.

(a. Firstly this goal will be very difficult to reach until Russia has experienced a series of military failures, which will be a long and painful way with a lot of variables.

(b. The result must come out with almost total damage to the people’s livelihood in this region. 

(c. Weapons and money support alone are not enough to support Ukraine to gain even a little advantage in war. The armed troops from local countries must be another pillar to reach this image. These foreign armies, such as from Poland, Romania, Turkey, Hungary, and even terrorist forces, etc., must be for their own national interests, not for Ukraine’s.

(d. There will be a high probability that some of the small independent regimes were established by these foreign powers on Ukrainian territory. This means Ukraine might be divided into some small pieces by its allies. We can call this outcome as the breakdown of Ukraine or Somatization of Ukraine. A fragmented Ukraine must be a powder keg in the heart of Europe.

(e. The worst result is that each participating country will divide Ukraine into lots of independent governments according to the script of the division of Yugoslav.It can be named as Yugoslavization of Ukraine.

Ceasefire between Dnieper River and Donpass

Ceasefire in the zone between the bank of the Dnieper River and the administrative border of Donetsk and Luhansk (named as L3 line). It may be an ideal result for Ukraine.But the ceasefire in this area will not be stable in the long term, because the cost to overturn the ceasefire agreement is small enough. Some of the top politicians in the world or the local region can trigger fire again and again in this region to obtain political interests when they want or need. Compared to these strong politicians, Ukraine’s central government is very weak over the war in this region and will be weaker and weaker as the war continuously runs ahead.

Prospects for Ukraine from this war

What can we scout for Ukraine through a political perspective? Perhaps there will be three judgments obtained with a high probability.

1. A sturdy Ukrainian Trench has been built. This ditch will prevent Russia from collaborating with Western Europe for at least the next 20 to 50 years, regardless of whether the final ceasefire line is on the L1, L2, or L3 line. It is the only sure outcome from Russia-Ukraine War.
2. When and where to cease-fire depends on the decision of the foreign controlling power. The negative effects from a prolonged war are more serious in the heart of Europe than in Ukraine. The longer the war lasts, the greater the impact on the stability of the European core is.
3. There is a high probability that Ukraine will split into several small pieces and become a powder keg for Europe that will threaten the security of the European core area and even the entire world.

War for West Europe/ The European Union?

Why did the Western European Countries actively jump into a war against Russia? Let us deduce some reasons from military, political, and economical perspectives.

Military perspective

Has Russia obviously enlarged its military power or expanded its armament in the past 30 years? No.

Has Russia actively provoked border conflicts with Western European countries in the past 30 years? No.

In the past 30 years or so, has Russia provided money and weapons to the opposition in Western European countries to conduct anti-government military operations? No.

Does Russia have overwhelming military power over Western Europe recently? No.

Is there evidence that Russia has plans for military operations against Western European countries? No.

Political perspective

Does Russia have plans to oppose Western European political systems? No

Does Russia have plans to instigate chaos in Western Europe? No

Has Russia ever funded anti-government riots in Western European countries? No.

Has Russia interfered in elections in Western European countries? No

Will Russia pose a threat to political stability in Western Europe? No.

Has Russia been killing people in the Donbas region for the past 8 years, causing a humanitarian disaster? No.

Economical perspective

Is Russia taking away market share from Western European countries? No

Is the Russian economy putting enormous pressure on Western European economies? No

Will the Russian economy hinder the development of Western Europe? No.

Will the Russian economy harm the stability of Western Europe? No.

So it is very hard to find solid reasons to support Western Europe putting itself in a war against Russia. None of any long-term benefit is there for the whole of Europe.

1 It does not seem like a war for European long-term interests.

2 Media manipulators and politicians possibly profit from this war.

3 Ukraine falls into this war based on inescapable historical factors. In comparison, Western Europe has killed lots of its long-term interests to trade some personal profits and national short-term interests for a few local countries.

Prospect for Europe in the war

It will be very difficult to predict what Western Europe can do and what it can reach, because all leaders who manage the EU and Europe are crazy and far away from European entire interests and long-term interests. Under their domination, we may see a little clue from the faint background for Europe in this war.

1. If the war lasts for more than six months, there might be three to seven European countries directly involving themselves in this war. A series of unpredictable outcomes may follow. One of which is that Ukraine will become the birthplace of long-term unrest in the European core. If the war expands to involve Turkiye, Iran, Syria, Israel, and Palestine, the unrest will spread out of the Europe region and the Middle East.
2. Some local countries will send their armed troops into the Russia-Ukraine Wars based on their own national interests. These countries are the few European countries that can profit from this war. But this is also the basis for further fragmentation in Europe. It is very hard to reach a chance for whole of Europe to win some strategic interests, even some politicians and some local countries might grab some short profits.
3.  Once China claims support for the Russian position, Europe must come forward to support the American position, whether economic, military, or political, which will directly put Western Europe to face China’s hostility.
4.  If China and the USA engage in a semi-contacted military war, or full-scale economic war, China will surely conduct a global response. The big point here will be toto weaken America’s ability to sustain a long-term war. It is very clear that the colonized Europe will be a big burden for China when an Sino-USA conflict happens.
5. It is not statistically correct to suggest that all European leaders are politically inferior. But it is surly absurd that European politicians are actively engaged in a war to divide and weaken themselves.  It is absolutely ridiculous within theoretical, philosophical, and historical perspective. This can only happen under one condition. That is, Europe is a colony of an empire. A colonized Europe will be very difficult in growing stronger.

War for Russia?

Aggressor or defender Russia is?

Is Russia the aggressor or a defender in this Russia-Ukraine War? It could be a good topic for debate. From a military perspective, Ukraine never had any plan to directly attack Russia nor took any attack on Russia ever. Although the Ukrainian army has been carrying out military operations in the Donbas for eight years, it is theoretically based on Ukrainian territory, so that is likely a kind of civil war. From this standpoint, Russia is of course an aggressor who invades another country.

Another fact is that Russia has been warning against expanding NATO into the original CIS countries. The West, of course, can certainly reject Russia’s sphere of influence. But NATO is expanding its sphere of influence to the Russian border, when the West refuses to recognize the former CIS region as Russia’s sphere of influence. With the view to stop the NATO expansion process, Russia actually is a defender, and NATO can be the attacker.

Setting aside this kind of logical or lexical debate, we can see that Russia is indeed conducting a defensive military operation to build a denial trench or buffer zone against NATO’s intrusion eastwards.

The reasons Russia worries about NATO expansion

We can set up some questions on why Russia worries about NATO expanding its sphere of influence.

During the two Chechen wars, had the West supported the Chechen rebels, either at the government level or at the NGO level? YES.
Before the Russo-Georgian War in 2008, were there Western powers deeply involving themselves in Georgia’s political management? YES.
After the three Baltic countries joined NATO, did these three countries develop their diplomatic relations with Russia for better or worse? Worse.
In the direction of Kazakhstan, are there some anti-Russian NGOs? YES
Had Western Powers been involved in the 2014 coup that overthrew a legally elected Ukrainian government which was pro-Russia? YES.
Had the US ever sanctioned Russia for accusing Russia of meddling in the US election? YES.
With so many positive answers, should Russia worry about the West’s malice towards them? Definitely yes.
Will Russia worry about its national security by setting Ukraine as a land hostile to Russia? Definitely yes.
Under the above reasons, is it necessary for Russia to take military action to defend NATO? Of course, YES
Compared with the weak basis of the Western European intervening in a war against Russia, Russia has a series of solid reasons to launch a war against NATO.

Options for Russia

Along national interests, Russia may take ideas with the following options.

To obtain political benefits comprehensively.

The goal is to force the Ukrainian government to secede from NATO in an all-around way and become a denial zone that prevents NATO from expanding eastwards.
The first phase of the special military operations is for this goal. It showed the following features:

(a. distributing army force widely and comprehensively in a huge area;

(b. Break down and divide the Ukrainian army into separated clusters in different zones;

(c. Arranging heavy (or suspicious) troops to threaten the capital of Ukraine;

(d. replicating the model of the Russo-Georgian War in 2008 for a quick political goal.

This political-military plan eventually failed as Russia had no absolutely overwhelming advantage when Ukraine was strongly supported by foreign powers. This kind of possibility will almost disappear in the future, unless there is a successful coup following a comprehensive agreement with Russia.

To pursue general military victories and major political goals.

As a second-best objective, to set up a ceasefire line along the Dnieper River and the Black Sea coast (named as line L1a) or along the Dnieper River only (named as line L1b). This ceasefire line is a realistic goal with a high probability.
In this war, Russia and the USA actually have a common goal on a wide, deep and solid ditch to separate two hostile groups from each other. Where the ditch is located and when the ditch is on will be based on the affordability of one or both parties. Once the USA and Russia reach some degree of compromise under certain conditions, a ceasefire line can be achieved somewhere. If Russia had already firmly occupied the L1 line before the USA bloc got advantage in Central Ukraine, to set a ceasefire along the L1 line would be a realistic possibility.

The L1a line benefits Russia on that it can eliminate the Ukrainian naval power, and reduce the possibility of Western naval forces intervening in this area.

The benefit of the L1b line is that it reduces the probability of harassment from land forces on the Black Sea coast.

Another plan for Russia may be to seek a ceasefire between the L1 and L2 lines.

It seems like a higher probability as Russia recently has had some practical difficulties in pursuing the ceasefire plan along the L1 line.
This plan looks ideal for all main players in the war scenario. Russia can quickly achieve political and military victories without paying more cost. Ukraine can recollect its soldiers together from every divided battlefield. These surviving warriors will form an important force for Ukraine to protect its lands they can defend in the future. The USA avoids further military, economic and political costs to keep current profits. European countries can take a deep free breath when they finally are out of the anxiety-provoking environment.

However, any ceasefire line in the L3 area is not stable for a relatively long term. Neither side on both sides of the ceasefire line has been completely knocked down. Any part has enough capacity to recall a war or a conflict when a low level political need recalls. Without the help from a natural military dividing like the Dnieper River, conflict is more likely to occur. Some aggressive powerful politicians can provoke a new conflict to seize their political profit whenever they need. In other words, Russia or Europe is at great risk to be involved in a protracted war.

Keep the bottom line on L2 line (or named as the Eastern Wall of Russia-Ukraine War)

To keep the bottom line along with the complete administrative border of Donetsk and Luhansk (named as L2 line). Russia will risk a military defeat if it is dragged into a protracted war. Perhaps Russia has to fall back to the L2 line as its last bottom line. This front line at L2 line (or named as the Eastern Wall) will be very strong because not only Russia will put its heavy power on it, but China will also absolutely support it. Under the current political situation, China will not tolerate Russia suffering from a complete military defeat.

Prospects for Russia

There is a relatively high probability to set up a likely stable Ukraine Trench on the L1 line. The USA still hesitates about how much it will spend on this war. If Russia can firmly set up its front along the L1 line when America is hesitating about its cost in the war, Russia will gain a favorable political position.
Another higher probability is setting up a ceasefire line at the L3 line area between the L1 line and the L2 line. Ceasefire in this area is not the best option for Russia to reach long-term stability because the USA has controlling power on this kind of ceasefire line in this zone.
There is currently no possibility that Russia will be compressed back eastwards beyond the L2 line before or by 2026. The U.S. will not want to pay so much cost on Russia.
Even if Russia is eventually squeezed back to the L2 line, Russia still will be a partial political victory. At this bottom line, Russia can stop the humanitarian catastrophe in Donbas Region and stop NATO’s expansion through the Ukrainian Trench.
Regardless of whether the ceasefire line will be located on the L1 line or the L3 line in the near future, it will conduct enormous challenges in 2024 and 2026 according to the US election and the situation across the Taiwan Strait.
Speeding up economic cooperation (or integration) with China will be an important task for Russia currently. If Russia finally jumps into an economic alliance with China to relieve foreign pressure, it will seriously change the current world economic map.
There is nearly no probability that Russia and China will sign full alliance even as a paper work before a war is on Russian territory.
Russia’s economic system will not be destroyed by this war eventually because it is mainly composed of raw material suppliers.

War for the USA?

Reasons to trigger the War

The majority of readers may dislike when I list the USA as the main driver of this war, but this inference will be borne out by the course of the war. In actuality, America has lots of reasons to reject this war, and also has lots of reasons to provoke it. America is the only country to orient our world with enough power. The USA is also the only country which has the power to turn disadvantageous situations into advantage. That is why it is very difficult to predict the next step the USA will take. There might be some reasons to inspire the USA to trigger this war.

To weaken Europe.

In the period when Chancellor Angela Merkel presided over Germany, the European economy as a whole was getting better and better. Nowadays, the Nord Stream 2 and China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment will work. The agreement signed by Russia and China in January of 2022 also specified that oil and gas trade between the two countries will be settled in euros. All of these will push Europe to get stronger and stronger. However, any giant local power in growth will be bad news for America.

We can review a similar “war” to kill the Northeast Asia Free Trade Area and Asian Dollar. At the beginning of this century, China, South Korea, and Japan were getting closer on their relationships. The cooperation agreement in Northeast Asia was advancing, and there was even a call to create the Asian dollar. However, the Japanese government suddenly nationalized the Diaoyu (Senkaku) Island to anger China in 2012. South Korea deployed a missile monitoring and defense system (THAAD) to humiliate China in 2016. These seriously hostile actions crushed the chance to conduct the Northeast Asia Common Market and the Asia Dollar.

Recently Europe is strengthening ties with Russia and China in the economic and political fields. That will then enhance Europe’s independence and reduce America’s power to direct Europe and the world. Weakening Europe’s independence by triggering a war in the core of Europe is reasonable for the USA to control the world for a longer time.

To hit Russia

There may be a deep inner fear of Russia in the memory of the Western world. Russia, on the map, is nearly twice the size of the entirety of geographic Europe. It has the world’s largest nuclear force. Russia also has a history of being super strong militarily. Both Russia and the USA had engaged in hostilities during the civil wars in Yugoslavia and Syria. Economically, Russia connects China eastwards and cores Europe westwards. For the last 20 years, this country has been steadily going from strength to strength. The USA now has the ability to trigger a war, weaken Russia’s economy, drive Russia away from European markets, and undermine Russia’s war potential. There is a hopeful probability to weaken Russia’s nuclear warfare capabilities and potential by the means of weakening Russia’s economy. For so many reasons, starting a war against Russia is logical and practical for America.

To prepare a war to China

There also are many reasons for the USA to launch a war on China. As long as the possibility of failure is ruled out, these major developed economies in the world will support any type of war against China at any level and under any conditions.

China, such a smiling economic beast, seems ready to hug anyone tenderly and politely at any time. It looks likely without fangs and claws, but all obstacles ahead its path will vanish after it makes a slight push with its soft-looking lips. This country is taking slow but firm steps and invading the economic field traditionally dominated by developed countries. Every gentle step China took, made the affected area shock like an earthquake. That is a common idea from western developed economies to block China’s economic invasion. To take back the trade share and defend the developed economies’ interests, the West can do anything to China. For this target, the West has tried various methods, including technology blockade, market blockade, anti-dumping, tariffs, long-arm jurisdiction, concept innovation, concept replacement, disinformation propaganda, and double judgment standards, but all of these responding ways were unsuccessful. So if there is a certain opportunity to defeat China even through a war, it will be worth trying.

At least three effects upon China are there that America can reach from this war.

(1. Rehearse a high-intensity military operation to assess the consequences and costs for a future military action against China.

(2. Rehearse a full-scale economic war to assess outcomes and costs against China.

(3. To test the borders where China will be involved in a war, and test the extent of cooperation between China and Russia.

Prospects for the USA

Regardless of the reason to intervene in this war, the USA has certainly achieved the following three achievements through this war.

To weaken Europe,
To weaken Russia,
To build a solid Ukrainian Trench to separate Russia from Europe.
The USA also can reach the following goals, when it wants to.

To drag Russia into a prolonged war, at least until 2024 or 2026. With this point, America might not want to compress Russia back to the L2 line by 2024 or by 2026.
If the USA has a military plan against China and it is finally implemented, the USA may win a major victory or face a major defeat.

War for China?

Situation

China seems not involved in this Russia-Ukraine War, but it has been drawn inside indirectly. Before the war, China and Ukraine had a major acquisition. A Chinese company had completed the acquisition of a Ukrainian company named JSC Motor Sich. It is an aero engine company. However, the Ukrainian government suddenly declared the acquisition illegal and then nationalized this new company. This is an extremely rare instance when a finished acquisition process was overthrown. According to the principle of procedural justice pursued by the West, the case is completely unacceptable under the standards of western society. It also seriously hurts Ukraine’s national interests and foreign relations with China. Over the past thirty years, both the Chinese people and the Chinese government were much more friendly toward Ukraine than they were toward Russia. After this case, the voice of sympathy for Ukraine disappeared immediately from Chinese people and Chinese society. Most Chinese believe that Ukraine completely joined the anti-China camp of the West. If there was no such incident, any policy to support Russia would suffer from strong opposition from Chinese people and Chinese society.

Rationally, the Russia-Ukraine War is far from China’s borders. Ukraine is not an important economic activity area for China. China can handle requests and complaints from Ukraine with detachment. The friendly relation in the past thirty years has been squandered by this Ukrainian administration. And out of fear that the Ukrainian government will harm China’s interests, Chinese people’s sympathy on Ukraine has been almost inaudible.

As for the Russian voice, China is caught in a dilemma. Russia’s resistance to NATO is in line with China’s strategic interests, so it must be supported. On the other hand, China is reluctant to openly oppose US demands for sanctions against Russia. At the same time, China neither likes Russian-style rude diplomacy nor the self-righteous foreign policy of the USA. Fortunately, Ukraine is far enough away from China that China can take a detached attitude and look at all indifferently.

Profits and risks for China

In the current stage of confinement of the war, China is one of the few winners ever. There are some profits and risks involved for China.

1. Russia is getting closer to China under a foreign push. Russia has to hug China fervently and not just be a polite neighbor as it used to be.
2.  Not only Russia embraces China’s political and economic views but Russia will also allow China to expand its influence into the former CIS countries. The longer the Russia-Ukraine War lasts, the closer Russia will get to China.
3.  China can be unconcerned with the war westwards the border of the Donetsk and Luhansk (the L2 line). There will hardly be any negative outcomes for China if the war is only in the area beyond the L2 line westwards.
4.  As the war prolongs and expands, it may cause NATO to expand into Asia. If NATO is expanded to Japan, South Korea, and Australia, it will exert great political and military pressure on China. But this probability is relatively small because, on the whole, major European countries are shy of being involved in a war with China.
5.   If America created a new alliance in Asia with Japan, South Korea, Australia, and one or two ASEAN countries (The Association of Southeast Asian Nations), it will also seriously increase political and military pressure on China. This probability is relatively high and relatively realistic.
6.   If India supports western sanctions against Russia, it will pose a huge threat to China, because it will build a foundation for the West to form a grand economic alliance that excludes China. Militarily India can only provide even low-level harassment to China. It is unrealistic to expect India to put huge pressure on China militarily.

    

Prospects for China

1. Under the circumstance of limited-scale war, China has a good place to judge the war. China will do nothing when the war is west of the border of Donetsk and Luhansk.

2. Anti-China voices in Europe will gradually fade as the war continues. If anti-China voices suddenly grow stronger after a period of muteness, it indicates that the USA will launch tough actions on China.

3. The USA will strengthen ties with allies in the Asia-Pacific region as well as it accelerates politico-military agreements with China.

4. The Russia-Ukraine War may reduce the possibility of a China-US conflict. The likelihood of a major compromise between these two countries before 2026 has increased. (Revision in February 2023: the authors now consider this probability to be very low, based on the hostility of public opinion from both countries.)

5. As a means to exert pressure on China, there is a high possibility that the Russia-Ukraine War will continue beyond 2026, despite whether a brief ceasefire will happen or not.

6. Once a semi-contact war occurs between China and the USA, it will slide into a full-scale contact war quickly, because public opinion on both countries has been looking forward a war for a long time.

7. [Supplemented in February 2023] Europe has endogenous hostility towards China. The chances of European powers initiatively join into the US bloc’s military operations against China increased. This puts enormous pressure on China’s 2026 plan. It also increases the chance of a chaotic outlook on the world.

War for the world?

Huge Risk

Another prospect of the Russia-Ukraine War is that the USA is planning to drag China into the war. If the USA has a certain plan to pull China into an existing war or another war triggered by any events by 2026, the risks will be extremely large and unpredictable. Both of these two top powers in the world might be moved into the loser group from the current winner list.

In any case, when a war involves the USA and China together directly or semi-directly, it must be a world war which will involve more and more countries’ insides.

Can politicians around the world have the following questions about a serious probability of war between two top monster countries?

Has America made a military script fighting China?
Has America measured cost and profit based on a war against China?
Is the consequence of a war against China most likely to be positive or negative for America?
Which plan will benefit America more? To keep China in the recent American System or completely expel China out?
Will America be ready to completely expel China from the supply chain in the coming fifteen years? Is America able to defeat China in the next fifteen years?
Is China thinking about a war coming? Where might China make concessions? What conditions must China make a comprehensive response to?

Challenges from China to the USA

There are four pillars, political, economic, military, and financial, to underpin the current American style system. The USA is mainly challenged by China in economic and military aspects recently. China is still too weak to challenge America in the financial system as well as it has not actively challenged America’s political foundation framework.

The economic target has been China’s most important goal for nearly 40 years. And this economic success story has caused great anxiety to the developed western economies. When we review this successful story, it is only a story about hard work under the rules set up by the West. Therefore, China and the West should work together to find a better way for their compromise and cooperation, not take warfare as a solution to a dispute. The China-EU Comprehensive Agreement on Investment is actually a good attempt. Unfortunately it is in a deep sleep condition now.

In terms of military affairs, China is indeed the biggest pressure source and competitor of the United States. For the stock of total military power, the USA is much ahead of China. It also has a comprehensive advantage in high technology integrated in weapons. About global military layout, the advantages of the USA are overwhelming.

The United States also has structural shortcomings in terms of military power. That are:

The common economic structural flaw in mature empires. A high cost structure created by a large wealth base. China can rely on its low-cost advantage to defeat the United States through two ways, a continuous arms race in peace period or continuous attrition in a war state.
The political structural flaw in the late of mature empires. The central governments of all mature empires are commonly under-centralized. They cannot effectively concentrate superior resources to form a comprehensive military advantage. Or these central governments are unable to effectively translate military superiority into fighting power when these empires are not in complete failure, or even in failure state.

Possible China-USA Conflict playbook

1. prelude to war

Scenarios that may trigger a China-US war.

1 The USA takes comprehensive economic and financial warfare tools to completely stop China’s economic operation.

2 Taking means to practically block the voyages from South America to China, Africa to China, and Australia to China. 

3 In the second half of 2026 or the first half of 2027, mainland China launches a civil war over the Taiwan Strait and the USA conducts military intervention.

4 The USA and China fall into direct collisions caused by military aircraft and warships events in the South China Sea.

5 After China issued a statement to support a bottom line at the border of Donetsk and Luhansk as a ceasefire line, the US bloc still pushed the war over the line or even entered the Russian border.

【It may be a huge risk to imagine a hot war scenario between the US and China, so about 1300 words in the following section were deleted from the original version. Author says sorry to every reader for that. 】

【The following part involves the script of the hot military conflict between China and the USA. Because of the huge risks, the author has temporarily deleted it from the original manuscript.】

2. First-level interaction: harassment warfare.
3. Second-level interaction: semi-contact warfare or proxy warfare.
4. The third-level interaction: low-intensity hot battle.

5. The fourth-level interaction: moderate-intensity war.
6. Level 5 interaction: major war.

7. Nuclear war option.

[ Abstract: China will definitely “leak” its dependable nuclear forces (generally about 3,000 warheads) by the end of 2025, so as to completely eliminate the nuclear option from the Sino-US conflict playbook.

More contents is deleted, and author says sorry for that.]

Prospects for America and China in a hostile war

[ is deleted to avoid huge risk. Author says sorry to every reader for that]

Summary

In short, if the Russia-Ukraine War is confined to a limited regional war, it would be easier to identify the main winners and losers. The USA is the biggest winner among them. America has profited in the following three ways, weakening Europe, weakening Russia, and building the Ukrainian Trench to prevent Europe and Russia from approaching each other. Also, America has absolute power over where and when the ceasefire line will be set up. America also has a decidedly powerful influence in limiting the size and timing of the war. Russia is another winner we can see so far, and in fact it is invincible at least by 2026. It basically can achieve two main goals which are de-Nazification in eastern Ukraine and halting the humanitarian catastrophe in the Donbas region. In addition to this basic gain, Russia has the opportunity to gain more. The best gain would be to dig a Ukrainian trench along the banks of the Dnieper and the Black Sea Coast to defend its national interests. Or, Russia alternatively can set up a ceasefire line in the area between the Dnieper River and the Donbas, to obtain a relatively large buffer zone to protect itself. At least Russia could build Ukraine Trenches along the Donbas’ complete border to prevent the encroachment of hostile forces. China profited a lot when Russia strengthened its economic ties with China and supported China more in political and economic fields. As the war prolongs, China will gain more. Ukraine is, of course, the main loser. It will surely lose more territory than it had done before the war started. The bigger risk is that Ukraine may lose more territory, and even lose its country frame eventually. Beyond common sense, Europe as a whole is another major loser from the Russia-Ukraine War. The economic foundation of Europe had been weakened when Nord Stream 2 stopped working, and the China-EU investment agreement was interrupted. Another worse and far-reaching thing is that Europe has lost the prospect to be one of the world’s top pillars. Other countries in the world have also completely lost their expectations and support for Europe to become one top power. Europe is entering a dynasty formed by a pile of small nations after they expelled Russia out of Europe into Asia through the famous solid Ukraine Trench.

If America has a plan, through the Russia-Ukraine War or any other later chance, to initiate a massive war fighting China, there will be a huge risk not only for both of them, but also for the whole world. In the first stage of the China-USA playbook, the priority for the USA must be to block China’s sea passages and to harass China in multiple locations, multiple directions, and multiple forms, with medium or low intensity. China will mainly respond in the direction of protecting the economic chain. China also will try to initiate chaos in Europe to weaken the ability of the USA in a prolonged war. China also will stimulate a big mess in the Middle East and North Africa to weaken America’s political power. Although it will be very hard to predict the final outcome from a large-scale war, generally the USA may face a bigger chance of losing more than China. A big basis for China is it will not lose any territory and state structure from a huge failure. In contrast to China, once U.S. military prestige is weakened, the cost for the USA to govern the world system rises rapidly.

References:

1. Marsh, S; Chambers, M. Germany freezes Nord Stream 2 gas project as Ukraine crisis deepens. Reuters. February 23, 2022.https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germanys-scholz-halts-nord-stream-2-certification-2022-02-22/

2. Chen, Aizhu. Russia, China Agree 30-Year Gas Deal Via New Pipeline, to Settle in Euros. USNEWS. February 4, 2022.https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2022-02-04/exclusive-russia-and-china-agree-30-year-gas-deal-using-new-pipeline-source
3. Ye, QiQuan. Whose War? Players winning or losing in the Russia-Ukraine War. [Blogger Version of this Article]https://destinedfating.blogspot.com/2022/09/whose-war-players-winning-or-losing-in.html
4. Ye, QiQuan.[PDF copy of the submission recept from a famous politics journey ] Whose War? Players winning or losing in the Russia-Ukraine War.https://drive.google.com/file/d/1Ktj8rwoEIwpk27GE5ZKINTxsEmEPbBs7/view?usp=sharing